Jun 20, 2017 the following are four potential scenarios for venezuelas future, listed in no particular order of likelihood. They should be older than 18, residents of either russia or germany, and they should be fluent in the english language to make communi cation easier. Nov 21, 2011 as vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russias future are unclear. Russia in 2020brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Anatoly zak writer and illustrator specialized in the history of space exploration. The idea of undertaking a reflection on the futures of russia emerged as soon as the. First, existing sanctions targeting russias violations of ukrainian sovereignty will remain in place for the foreseeable future absent russias fulfillment of its obligations under the minsk peace agreements. Mncs need to build flexible scenarios into their longrange russia plans that consider. Since the dawn of the nuclear age in the 1940s, most of the worlds nuclear capability was split between the u. These will likely include traditional contingencies and humanitarian operations as well as the protection of the u.
According to research organization rand, should a major conflict arise in russia and chinas backyards, us forces. Scenarios for the future of technology and international development. Scenarios for the future february 20 nikolay petrov, hse. A detailed overview of the current and future business environment in russia. Scenario modelling disclaimer this is a workinprogress scenario model of a highly dynamic situation. Available national programmes or funds that could provide support to russian horizon 2020 participants horizon 2020 is fully open to the participation of entities from across the world in all parts of the programme, and many topics are flagged as being specifically relevant for cooperation with partners from outside. Air force of the 21st century will be asked to make quick, decisive responses to a broad range of challenges. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. Russias national security strategy to 2020 keir giles1 introduction the publication of russias latest national security strategy in may 2009 has given rise to a wide range of commentary and interpretation. Second, predicting the possible scenarios of russias development after putins departure from power is pure guesswork, thus we look at the next eight.
Russia and eurasia nic 2020 workshopbudapest, hungary april 2004. At stake is the extent to which governments democratic or otherwise. Native of russia, he attended school of journalism at moscow state university. The first wave of covid19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1 to 2year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021. Glazyev believes there are seven possible scenarios for russias geoeconomic and geopolitical position in the world over the next decade. Germany and russia in 2030 friedrich ebert foundation. These consolidated scenarios provide the input to develop the research roadmap in a later stage. Conference future scenarios for russia and the west. The umbrella of american protection meant that its allies didnt have. What were going to do today is have presentations from, first, nikolay petrov, who has a powerpoint presentation with some of the key points. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the african development bank, its boards of directors, or the countries they represent. To develop what we hope is a challenging and compelling set of scenarios, we relied on many credit union system leaders who offered their perspective on the biggest changes that will shape the future of the credit union system in 2020.
Of course, these scenarios illustrate just a few of the possible futures that may. The author is highly motivated to be engaged in the writing of this paper. The results are scenarios for consideration, not bcg forecasts about the future. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead.
For more insight into russias fascinating future, read whats ahead for russia. Shifting political and economic development tendencies in russia will indicate movement towards future. Each scenario is aimed at challenging conventional wisdom and questioning existing assumptions about russia \\s economic. Russias role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil society, the state, regions and. Russia interaction where economic relations could be reshaped, and it suggests that if the right balance between politics and economic pragmatism can be found, such ties could become a shock absorber and open prospects for qualitative and quantitative improvements in bilateral relations.
Political liberalization and institutional reforms. Russia s role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and. In russia 2025 an allstar cast of russia watchers provides an indepth examination of the societal, governmental, economic and political forces that will shape russia over the next decade and a half. Russian prospects political and economic scenarios. We are a leading international sustainability nonprofit, working with business, governments and civil society to accelerate the shift toward a sustainable future. Russia in 2020, also available in russian, brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. The future of transatlantic sanctions on russia center for.
Developments along the chosen uncertainty axes are dynamic over time. Russias national security strategy to 2020 keir giles1 introduction the publication of russia s latest national security strategy in may 2009 has given rise to a wide range of commentary and interpretation. A fortuitous orbit of the international space station allowed the astronauts to take this striking view of sarychev peak volcano russia s kuril islands, northeast of japan in an early stage of eruption on 12 june 2009. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime. And the problem is, and youve seen it at the three scenarios, that in our view, this scenario cannot last for long. As vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russias future are unclear. Russia s military appears to have improved significantly since the war in georgia in 2008. The hotel of the future will be an integrator of services and businesses to play as the. Putin starts reforming the system to minimize risks of transfer of power. Learn about russias macroeconomic and geopolitical trajectory, basecaseupsidedownside scenarios for the market, the top 4 events to watch, and the most critical business strategies businesses need to implement to get the market right.
This should help the european council draw first conclusions by the end of the year and decide on a course of action to be rolled out in time for the european parliament elections in june 2019. World scenario series scenarios for the russian federation. What will russian military capabilities look like in the future. Iv russia regains its empires position due to high oil and gas prices this scenario seems to be the closest to the current policy of the kremlin. Wild cards scenarios destabilization in moscow a third war in the caucasus nationalist coup.
Chilling world war iii wargames show us forces crushed. Wild cards scenarios destabilization in moscow a third war in the caucasus nationalist coup european choice bloggers revolutionrussia without putin destabilization of neighbors world crisis schism in the elite soft dissolution russia2020. The russia2020 team was particularly interested in the fascinating scenario analysis of russias future by daniel yergin and thane gustafson. The future of russia divergent scenarios for 202050. Russia in 2020brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead despite putins eminent return, the authors believe that the socalled putin era is over. Because of conflicting interests between russia and the west and because russia s future intentions are uncertain, how russia develops its military presents real challenges to the united states and its allies. Jeremy bentham but as behavioural economists like dan kahneman have pointed out, we tend to be trapped within the limits of our own experience, which leads to all kinds of problems. Each scenario is aimed at challenging conventional wisdom and questioning existing assumptions about russia. Russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage. Scenarios for the future published on nov 21, 2011 while vladimir putin is unlikely to give up power any time soon, the political and economic system he created is incapable of. As the crisis begins to recede and russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for russia s future along key vectors, including. Building the bank of 2030 and beyond ey united states. Pdf this is a conference paper, it was presented at the 25th arcom conference. International policy analysis future scenarios for the eurozone 15 perspectives on the euro crisis scenario team eurozone 2020 march 20 the eurozone is standing at a crossroads, facing the biggest challenges in its history.
Chilling world war iii wargames show us forces crushed by. Scenarios for the future, a book recently published in russian by the carnegie moscow center and rosspen and earlier published in english by the carnegie foundation for international peace, analyzes the potential impact of these trends. The energy outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. As the crisis begins to recede and russia starts to chart a path forward, an international team of experts has been brought together to discuss the prospects and opportunities for russias future along key vectors, including. Leading this effort at the rockefeller foundation is our research unit, which analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to respond to the complex, rapidly changing world around us. Building the bank of 2030 the themes that will shape it 4 a new assertiveness from government this has led to a debate about whether capitalism itself is in crisis. Russias outlook over the next five years will be dependent on two key variablesthe outlook for oil prices, and how well the government manages the countrys challenges. Jan 23, 20 the scenarios for the russian federation were developed through a strategic dialogue process engaging over 350 business, policy and academic leaders throughout 2012. The report focuses on possible future pathways for the russian economy and presents three different scenarios. It shows how rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand and how that demand will be met over the coming decades through a diverse range of supplies including oil, gas, coal and renewables. Pdf future scenarios for the european construction industry. Future scenarios, both global and regional, indicate that the u. Out of these drivers, the working group selected three critical uncertainties for russias future.
He likes the company itself and wants to support decision making in the strategy formulation ikea 2020. Apr 21, 2011 russia faces a range of challenges as it attempts to modernize and effectively use its power on the global stage. This large format, illustrated book is a unique attempt to visualize the future of astronautics through the eyes of russian space engineers and to describe that nations planning in space during the past several decades. Current political trends could have a significant impact on russias future development. Perfectly predicting the future is not possible, but one can gain insights for the future of key russian ground capabilities by analyzing the critical political, economic, demographic, and societal factors underlying rus sian military power. Germany and russia in 2030 building scenarios the scenario team was composed through an open call for applications in january 20.
A declined russia is an angry cornerbadger, biting at some scraps. Russia in 2020, also available in russian, brings together leading experts from russia, the united states, and europe to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Export a ris file for endnote, procite, reference manager, zotero, mendeley export a text file for bibtex note. Potential scenarios for venezuelas future center for. Russia economic relations center for strategic and. According to research organization rand, should a major conflict arise in russia. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russias development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. May 16, 2014 the present study aims to qualify these aspects of strategy 2020 with a newly developed russia klems dataset as well as the world klems data for other countries, available at it raises questions, what drives russian productivity growth and to what extent suggestions of strategy 2020 are relevant for growth enhancing.
The confidentiality issues concerning this thesis were agreed on with the student, jamk university of applied sciences and ikea shopping centres russia. Project 2020 is an initiative of the international cyber security protection alliance icspa. The advantage of drafting scenarios over thinking about a grand strategy is. New outlines of russian innovation policy, foresight and sti governance foresight russia till no. Such scenario will be the more likely, the more seriously the usa and the eu weaken. Despite the growth trajectory registered since the early 2000s, the economic and political structure in russia is starting to show its limits, and the evolution registered since 2009 is a sign of it. While some are surprised by russias relatively rapid pivot from west to east, it is also sobering to witness the increasing animosity between russia and the west in the light of what bible prophecy has long foretold. Sarychev peak is one of the most active volcanoes in the kuril island chain. Even in 1999, when western powersand most russians themselveshad written the country off as bankrupt and. Oct 24, 2017 the report also describes scenarios for u. Russia in 2020 brings together leading experts to analyze the possible scenarios for russia s development in the next decade and the risks that lie ahead. Learn about russia s macroeconomic and geopolitical trajectory, basecaseupsidedownside scenarios for the market, the top 4 events to watch, and the most critical business strategies.
To translate his ideas into a plan of action, thenprime minister. On one hand, there are forecasts concerning the possibility of the russian federations territorial breakdown as it was foreseen by a cia report on the other hand, some people, like sachs who is an outstanding economist, forecast that russia belongs to the. The russia 2020 team was particularly interested in the fascinating scenario analysis of russia s future by daniel yergin and thane gustafson. Mar 12, 2019 chilling world war iii wargames show us forces crushed by russia and china. Society, politics and the search for community in russia. This reflection paper has set out a series of options and scenarios regarding the future direction of the budget and how it could be used. The second scenario, its a kind of moderate scenario. Russia s outlook over the next five years will be dependent on two key variablesthe outlook for oil prices, and how well the government manages the countrys challenges. Crises are likely unavoidable unless russia changes and modernizes.
Leading this effort at the rockefeller foundation is our research unit, which analyzes emerging risks and opportunities and thinks imaginatively about how to respond to the complex, rapidly. In this work ikea shopping centres russia assigned the author to predict future development scenarios of the company by the year 2020. In russia 2025 an allstar cast of russia watchers provides an in depth examination of the societal, governmental, economic and political forces that will shape russia over the next decade and a half. Scenarios for the future of technology and international. Scenarios for the future with kolya petrov and masha lipman. The hotel of the future will be an integrator of cultures, merging global brands with local roles in communities. Russia s role in the world and in the postsoviet space, political economy, economics, the political system and political parties, elites, society and civil. Scenarios for the future carnegie endowment for international peace lipman, maria, petrov, nikolay on. The paper at hand presents the findings of the phase one a first list of scenarios. This is what a nuclear war would actually look like hbo. A soft landingopposition ideology and chavismo live together.
Scenarios are not predictions of the future but help people explore and learn from possibilities audio popping bubbles sound effect. Aug 20, 2012 forecasts concerning the future of russia are widely divergent which is alarming and should receive our immediate attention. Three scenarios for the future of geopolitics world. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime icspa.
But instead of dividing russiawatchers both at home and abroad along the usual lines, it has provoked a much more varied response. This is the essential guide for anyone trying to figure out what lies ahead for putins russia. Until they culturally and mentally grow out of imperialism, i do not want them strong. Nikolay petrov and maria lipman from the carnegie moscow center outlined scenarios for russias future development and discussed the russia 2020 project, which explores the countrys prospects over the coming decade. It is intended to stimulate further debate about where the union is going and what we want to achieve together. Putin envisioned the future russia as politically stable and economically prosperous. Russian futures european union institute for security studies. Scenarios for the russian federation world economic forum. Russia in 2020 scenarios for the future maria lipman nikolay.
I cannot know the future, but so far russia has not demonstrated a state of being prosperous and peaceful at the same time. Project 2020 scenarios for the future of cybercrime white paper for decision makers. Dec 01, 2011 as vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russia s future are unclear. We specialise in addressing critical global challenges by catalysing change in key systems, from food to apparel, energy to shipping.
Another aspect of russias democratic future is that the country needs to come to. Nikolay petrov and maria lipman from the carnegie moscow center outlined scenarios for russia s future development and discussed the russia 2020 project, which explores the countrys prospects over the coming decade. As vladimir putin prepares to return to the presidency in the 2012 elections, the prospects for russia s future are unclear. The hotel of the future will be an integrator of multipurpose spaces to provide a platform of resources that can serve new customers.
Russia relations at columbia universitys harriman institute and the primakov institute for world economics and international relations imemo in moscow for a conference on future scenarios for russia and the west. The strategic concept and three scenarios of development 4 role of trade in attaining 2020 goals 6. Seven scenarios for russias geopolitical future russia beyond. But instead of dividing russia watchers both at home and abroad along the usual lines, it has provoked a much more varied response. The future of the russian military rand corporation. Each of these transitions would have major impacts on the day after challenges facing the country. Russia in 2020 maria lipman, nikolay petrov published by brookings institution press lipman, maria and nikolay petrov. The reports major conclusions must be drawn by the reader himself. The scenarios for the russian federation were developed through a strategic dialogue process engaging over 350 business, policy and academic leaders throughout 2012.
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